Assessment of the threat posed by highly potent synthetic opioids in Europe

This threat assessment examines the potential risks posed by highly potent synthetic opioids (HPSOs) in Europe over the next two years. Drawing on early warning data, forensic and clinical evidence, and expert input, the report explores how opioid-related harms could develop under different scenarios and identifies key uncertainties that may influence future trends.

The assessment highlights the emergence of these substances as a significant public health and security concern due to their extreme potency, the risk of overdose at very low doses, and their presence in counterfeit or misrepresented products. It presents two plausible future scenarios alongside priority actions to strengthen early detection, cross-sector coordination, preparedness, and rapid response. Rather than predicting future events, the report is intended to help policymakers and practitioners anticipate risks and improve Europe's readiness to respond to emerging synthetic opioid threats.