Lung Cancer Mortality in Australia in the Twenty-First Century: How Many Lives Can Be Saved with Effective Tobacco Control?


  • Quantified the number of lung cancer deaths averted in Australia through tobacco control.
  • Almost 2 million lung cancer deaths have already been prevented over the period 1956–2100.
  • Lung cancer will continue to be a significant public health concern in Australia.
  • Achieving zero smoking by 2025 would result in 360,000 more lung cancer deaths being averted by 2100.
  • Highlighted the urgent need for more effective and targeted tobacco control strategies to be implemented.



To estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths averted under various smoking scenarios.


We predicted lung cancer mortality rates and case numbers to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. We estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: ‘actual tobacco control’ (incorporating the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking prevalence was achieved by 2025, all of which were compared to a counterfactual scenario with the highest historical smoking consumption level continuing into the future as if no tobacco control initiatives had been implemented.


Without tobacco control, there would have been an estimated 392,116 lung cancer deaths over the period 1956–2015; of these 20% (78,925 deaths; 75,839 males, 3086 females) have been averted due to tobacco control. However, if past and current measures continue to have the expected effect, an estimated 1.9 million deaths (1,579,515 males, 320,856 females; 67% of future lung cancer deaths) will be averted in 2016–2100. If smoking prevalence is reduced to 10%, 5% or 0% by 2025, an additional 97,432, 208,714 or 360,557 deaths could be averted from 2016 to 2100, respectively.


Tobacco control in Australia has had a dramatic impact on the number of people dying from lung cancer. Several hundred thousand more lung cancer deaths could be averted over the course of the century if close-to-zero smoking prevalence could be achieved in the next decade.

Ahmad Shah

16 x 16’ is a new global initiative, supported by the Government of Italy, as part of UNDP’s Youth Global Programme for Sustainable Development and Peace (Youth-GPS), to recognize and support 16 youth-led organisations, movements or networks that promote Sustainable Development Goal 16 (

Ahmad Shah

South East Asian Fellowship Program on Drug Policy 2019

Submitted by Avinash Tharoor on Wed, 03/04/2019 - 15:12



Ahmad Shah

Drug abuse affects all societies worldwide, but the impact differs in male and female. Women and girls comprise ⅓ of global drug users yet are only ⅕ of those receiving treatment.

Ahmad Shah

How to apply: Submit the story of the nominee by the nominator with relevant proof of works at iyc [dot] youthenvoy [at] iyc-hq [dot] org

Ahmad Shah

Pakistan U.S. Alumni Network Karachi Chapter Leadership – Karachi was organized first meeting with  Executive Committee on March 14, 2019 (Thursday) at Pakistan American Cultural Center (PACC). 

Ahmad Shah

Glimpses from 2nd Promotion of Peace workshop at University of Education, Bank Road Campus held from 18th to 20th Feb, 2019. During 3 days participants were engaged and empowered of peace activities, role of students in peace building and designing Social Action Projects.

Ahmad Shah

The Master of Education (MEd) programme is open to outstanding teachers and educational leaders at all levels of the education system.

Confluence of Suicide and Drug Overdose Epidemics in Young Australian Males

Event Date

Young adult males experience higher mortality than females, and in age groups immediately younger and older, and with considerable variation in death rates over time. Trends in mortality and the causal structure of deaths among young adult Australian males over 1979–2011 are investigated, with a focus on suicide and drug overdose.

This seminar discusses trends in mortality among young adult Australian males with a focus on suicide and drug overdose.

Speaker: Professor Richard Taylor

Date And Time

Thu., 28 February 2019

3:00 pm – 4:00 pm AEDT

Ahmad Shah

Greetings. Happy to share an exciting opportunity as the brief details are given below:

PUAN Call for Nominations Everest International Model UN Conference 
July 15-19, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal 


Ahmad Shah

Dear Pakistan U.S. Alumni Network Members,

We would like to thank everyone who applied for Executive Committee. We had only 16 slots for this EC term and we received more than 26 applications. Yet, we have kept people from different programs of U.S. Department of State.

Trends in Self-Poisoning and Psychotropic Drug Use in People Aged 5–19 Years


Objectives: To characterise trends in self-poisoning and psychotropic medicine use in young Australians.

Design: Population-based retrospective cohort study.

Setting Calls taken by the New South Wales and Victorian Poisons Information Centres (2006–2016, accounting for 70% of Australian poisoning calls); medicine dispensings in the 10% sample of Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data (July 2012 to June 2016).

Participants: People aged 5–19 years.

Main outcome measures: Yearly trends in intentional poisoning exposure calls, substances taken in intentional poisonings, a prevalence of psychotropic use (dispensing of antidepressants, antipsychotics, benzodiazepines and medicines for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)).

Results: There were 33 501 intentional poisonings in people aged 5–19 years, with an increase of 8.39% per year (95% CI 6.08% to 10.74%, p<0.0001), with a 98% increase overall, 2006–2016. This effect was driven by increased poisonings in those born after 1997, suggesting a birth cohort effect. Females outnumbered males 3:1. Substances most commonly taken in self-poisonings were paracetamol, ibuprofen, fluoxetine, ethanol, quetiapine, paracetamol/opioid combinations, sertraline and escitalopram. Psychotropic dispensing also increased, with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increasing 40% and 35% July 2012 to June 2016 in those aged 5–14 and 15–19, respectively. Fluoxetine was the most dispensed SSRI. Antipsychotics increased by 13% and 10%, while ADHD medication dispensing increased by 16% and 10%, in those aged 5–14 and 15–19, respectively. Conversely, dispensing of benzodiazepines to these age groups decreased by 4% and 5%, respectively.

Conclusions: Our results signal a generation that is increasingly engaging in self-harm and is increasingly prescribed psychotropic medications. These findings indicate growing mental distress in this cohort. Since people who self-harm are at increased risk of suicide later in life, these results may foretell future increases in suicide rates in Australia.

Ahmad Shah

Scientific exchange and international dialogue is taking place in August 2019 in Alpenbach, Austria.

Ahmad Shah

Highlights of 1st 3 Days Promotion of Peace Workshop held with student of University of Education, Main Campus Lahore from 18th - 20th Feb, 2019. Participants were very keen to carry forward the learning through implementing Social Action Projects in their campus. 

National Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program

Wastewater analysis is widely applied internationally as a tool to measure and interpret drug
use within national populations, with the current national program in Australia representing world best practice. 

The National Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program report provides statistically valid datasets of drug use and distribution patterns across a large number of sites in capital cities and regional areas across Australia.

Some of the key findings:

  • Capital city cocaineand heroin average consumption exceeded regional consumption.
  • Alcohol and nicotine are the most consumed substances of those measured with available dose data.
  • When comparing data from August 2016 to August 2018, the population-weighted average consumption of methylamphetamine, cocaine,fentanyl, nicotine and alcohol increased, while consumption of MDMA andoxycodone decreased.
  • Of the drugs measured by the program that have available dose data, alcohol and nicotine continue to be the most consumed drugs in Australia, with methylamphetamine remaining the most consumed illicit drug.

The Chief Executive Officer Michael Phelan describes the action that is required to address the drug trends that have been uncovered through the national wastewater drug monitoring programme-  "It again reinforces that no single strategy can achieve sustained impacts and the ongoing necessity to employ a shared approach that targets supply, demand and harm reduction."

Ahmad Shah

(Internships - Conferences - Fellowships - Online Courses - Competitions - Exchange Programs - Leadership Programs – Scholarships)

Tasmania Drug Trends 2019: Methamphetamine Use, Markets and Harms

The Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) and Ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) are ongoing illicit drug monitoring systems which have been conducted in all states and territories of Australia since 2000, and form part of Drug Trends.

This bulletin provides an overview of key data sources that relate to methamphetamine use in Tasmania. 

In particular it is important to note that the Illicit Drug Reporting System and Ecstasy and Related Drug Reporting System projects focus on very frequent consumers of substances and are not representative of substance consumers at the population level.

Ahmad Shah

Call for Applications University of Ghana School of Public Health WHO HRP Alliance Postgraduate Scholarship 2019/2020

Drug Facts from the Australian Alcohol and Drug Foundation

Digital health information about the risks of drugs is available through the Australian Alcohol and Drug Foundation (ADF) website. The searchable online database, Drug Facts, features information about a range of substances which may pose harm including controlled substances, those protected under religious rights, over the counter and prescription medications. 

Searchable by "street name" as well as by common effect, the database offers information on the effects of different substances, the risks they pose to physical and mental wellbeing in the long and short term, withdrawal and how individuals can access support.

There is also a selection of statistics and helpful infographics which may be useful for health promotion practitioners in discussing a range of different substances in various different settings. Each page is written in plain English in an easy read format and can be printed to hand out as a resource.

Other pages of the website also feature information about the ADF's work in prevention and the range of training and other initiatives that they offer to professionals and communities to help "protect people from developing alcohol or other drug related problems".

Australian Alcohol and Drug Foundation

Australia’s Changing Relationship with Alcohol

There has been a steady decline in alcohol consumption in Australia over the past decade. It is important to understand what is encouraging individuals to change their drinking behaviour so as to support the maintenance of these positive trends into the future

A recent study, published in Alcohol and Alcoholism, has analysed drinking patterns across different age groups and sexes in Australia. Data, from Australia’s National Drug Strategy Household Survey, was collected every three years from 2001 to 2013. 

Results of the study show that young adults aged between 24 and 29 were the generational leaders in reducing alcohol intake. Males were more likely than females to report reducing their drinking behaviour, however females were more likely than males to report ceasing drinking altogether. Those in more disadvantaged neighbourhoods were more likely to report reducing and ceasing drinking.

With regards to the reasons for people modifying their drinking habits, older participants were more likely to describe reducing or ceasing alcohol for health benefits, whereas young people more commonly reported reducing or ceasing alcohol consumption for lifestyle and financial reasons. Females were more likely to reduce alcohol consumption for health reasons, whereas males were more likely to reduce alcohol consumption for lifestyle reasons.

It will be important to continue the longitudinal study in order to track the changing mood towards alcohol consumption, taking into account the environmental, social, economic and cultural factors at any point in time.